Probability of exceedance and return period of an annual rate
convertAEP.RdProbability of exceedance and return period of an annual rate
Mathematics
Under Poisson occurrence an annual rate \(AEP\) gives, over an investigation time \(IT\), the probability of at least one exceedance and the return period $$POE = 1 - e^{-IT \cdot AEP}, \qquad TR = 1/AEP .$$ The conversion is exact; it carries no dispersion.
Examples
convertAEP(AEP = 1 / unique(VancouverSpectra$TR), IT = 50)
#> POE TR
#> <num> <num>
#> 1: 0.01999735 2475.24752
#> 2: 0.02498264 1976.28458
#> 3: 0.03497377 1404.49438
#> 4: 0.05019635 970.87379
#> 5: 0.06993425 689.65517
#> 6: 0.09967548 476.19048
#> 7: 0.13972227 332.22591
#> 8: 0.19948499 224.71910
#> 9: 0.29917706 140.64698
#> 10: 0.39950442 98.03922